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Recently inflation is a popular topic in Poland and is highest since 2001. Experts presume inflation in Poland should continue to rise, and by the end of 2021 it will be close to 8%. This notebook aims to develop a forecasting model for time series using Python.

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msikorski93/Forecasting-Inflation-Rates-of-Poland

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Forecasting-Inflation-Rates-of-Poland

Recently inflation is a popular topic in Poland and is highest since the 90s. Experts presume inflation in Poland should continue to rise. The time series forecasting was completed by implementing the autoregressive methods.

  • New update for March 2024. Inflation values were forecasted with deep learning: CNN & LSTM. The out-of sample predictions confirm that Polish inflation will continue to fall. Based on evaluation metrics and model residuals, the CNN is a better choice.
RMSE R2 MAE MAPE [%]
CNN 0.4008 0.9892 0.3012 0.1753
LSTM 0.4957 0.9835 0.3736 0.2218
  • New update for March 2023.

march_2023

  • The November 2022 is an updated and much fresher version of the forecast. It contains a SARIMA implementation.

forecast

  • The earlier notebook (December 2021) describes the ARIMA method (without seasonality order). The notebook contains factual errors both in code and description.

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Recently inflation is a popular topic in Poland and is highest since 2001. Experts presume inflation in Poland should continue to rise, and by the end of 2021 it will be close to 8%. This notebook aims to develop a forecasting model for time series using Python.

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